Slow Day Politics
May 20, 2008 by Run Up The Score!
Everything’s theoretical at this point, but it’s interesting to see that an Obama / Edwards ticket currently leads McCain / Whoever by at least 10 points in Pennsylvania. Not sure why Chuck Hagel would be such a drag on Obama, unless it’s a name recognition thing.
Also interesting that Mike Huckabee is the guy who helps McCain the most as a potential VP candidate, though not particularly surprising. But as Josh says, the truly shocking part is that without any VP candidates named, Obama leads McCain by 8 points.
RUTS,
You need to look at the crosstabs a bit… They have the D/R/I split at 54/36/10. There is no way that is the real split on election day. Not saying that Obama can’t win here, but there is no way he is winning by 8.
No way I’m voting for a terrorist, nor is anyone in my family.
You’d be nuts to vote for Obama. McCain was a prisoner of war and a war hero, there is no reason he shouldn’t clear by a ton … especially if he picks Huckabee as his running mate
Wow, where did they conduct this poll? Philadelphia, Harrisburg, and Pittsburgh? Maybe U Park before all the students left? No way this is a cross section of PA
@Adam
I agree 110% this is nothing but the liberals from State College and a few other parts of the state that have no idea how the real world works….
They have the D/R/I split at 54/36/10. There is no way that is the real split on election day
Holy crap, I didn’t notice that. I know that less and less Pennsylvanians are identifying themselves as R’s these days, but those numbers are impossible. They have to be impossible.
On the other hand, this Republican ad is awesome.
McCain/Lieberman? That’s interesting
as of November, 2007 - PA looked like this (per PA DoS)
Total Registered Voters: 8,112,998
Registration by Party:
Democrat: 3,883,378 (47.9%)
Republican: 3,245,271 (40%)
Other Parties: 984,349 (12.1%)
The total number is likely to have changed though with the voter registration drives for the PA primary.
Obama/Edwards is easily the best looking of the possible tickets.
hey! my candy cardblock avatar showed up -
the people are especially delicious.
1. Sampling error is +/- 4.1%, so while the poll itself is nearly an outlier, it’s still within the data cloud Pollster is showing here:
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Pres-GE-MvO.php
The earliest SurveyUSA poll before this, 2/26-28/08 was also just within the data cloud, but the other way, with McCain 47%, Obama 42%, Undecided 10%. (Same party demos, too.)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=491de2e4-9b1b-4369-82af-badf383b6d7e%20
2. If you think they need to correct for political party ID, here are the breakouts of the polling by party:
Republicans (5/16-18): 76% McCain, 16% Obama, 8% Undecided
Republicans (2/26-28): 81% McCain, 13% Obama, 6% Undecided
Democrats (5/16-18): 70% Obama, 17% McCain, 13% Undecided
Democrats (2/26-28): 62% Obama, 26% McCain, 12% Undecided
Independents (5/16-18): 44% Obama, 41% McCain, 15% Undecided
Independents (2/26-28): 47% Obama, 39% McCain, 14% Undecided
(Again, I find the aggregated trendline at Pollster.com more useful than a single pollster, but here you go.)
3. One could recalibrate the numbers using the actual registered voters, but without more information about the model I’d have to guess what the new standard error would be.
Uh, you guys are aware that Kerry beat Bush in 2004 in Pennsylvania, right?
@firejaypa
I’m just interested are you saying that all liberals don’t understand how the world works, or just the ones who conducted this poll.
Should be a question mark at the end.
M1EK - Kerry was not black…hate to say it but I really doubt we will elect a black president.
I still think the Hildabeast will pull it out…those clintons are sneaky
McCain Lieberman would be interesting. It would be extremely interesting to see how Obama would respond to the idea that he would cross party lines the most, but then again many dems don’t like Lieberman.
He’s a democrat, but many democrats don’t like him. It would certainly make an interesting story.
“I’m just interested are you saying that all liberals don’t understand how the world works, or just the ones who conducted this poll.”
Just the liberals that said they’d vote for a terrorist with Muslim ties…
Are you saying what I think you’re saying?
A secret Muslim with a crazy Christian pastor?
Well, to the few who aren’t ashamed to still call themselves Republicans, I’m sure any Dem voter is a secret Muslim too. Obama akhbar!
Run, that idea’s just crazy enough to work.
FireJayPa is just mad that Obama doesn’t wear a shamrock lapel pin.
Is Jay Paterno a secret Muslim with terrorist ties, then?
You know I think Sebelius is a good choice for Obama– I said that for a long time even though she’s a relative unknown (unless you watched the democratic response to the State of the Union Address). My being a republican doesn’t like that ticket but I think it would strengthen Obama by keeping all of the femininity of Clinton without the extreme disdain people have for her. She has as much experience as someone like Huckabee as well.
Intriguing to say the least.
Oh and I know FireJayPa is probably being facetious, but I really wish Obama would come out and say that he isn’t a terrorist instead of always dodging around the topic.
Hey guys, the Klan called - your white sheets & hoods are ready for pick-up at the dry cleaners.
Wouldn’t want you to miss your hate groups tonight!
TS - Calm down, I know it was hard being one the only black kids in HAHS’s class of 93′ but if you go back to H-town you will have plenty of minority friends.
Bottom line - Racism is part of society and always will be. There are whites/white trash, blacks/niggers, hispanics/spics, etc. If you are a good person that is all that matters to ME (and most on here), the rest of society is not like that…it’s the truth.
Why do you think so many black voters went to Obama and white voters to Clinton? Blacks trust blacks…whites trust whites.
Most of us have evolved beyond intolerance of other people. And hate the Dutch.
Word M1EK…don’t for the those F’N Canada folk.
StL,
As you were the only learning disabled Hispanic Jew in the high school, I’m sure you saw your fair share of racism.
Hey, vote for whoever you want. All politicians exist for one reason: to get elected. Beyond that, they’re all the same.
I am surprised Jay Paterno wasn’t a George W. Bush supporter. Two people who would be nothing without their far more competent father’s names and connections, who reach a position that is far beyond what they otherwise would with their qualifications and proceed to f— up royally.
Then again, that comparison is probably unfair….to Jay Paterno.
Mark my words pittanylion… history will remember George W. Bush as one of the top 5 presidents in United States history.
Adam -
Only the historically revised versions of American History that will reside in the GWB Presidential Library…